Another better can win only one out of ten bets, with the same amount of money placed on each wager again, and win money. Sports betting is all about value. Even though the first bettor has a 90% win rate. Enter the amount of money you wish to bet. Our calculator will take care of the rest. You’ll see how much money you’ll win, and the total payout you’d receive. We set the bet amount to $100, but you can enter. Bwin offers the world’s largest sports betting platform with over 90 different sports available to bet on, including football, tennis, and basketball.Choose between our wide variety of sporting tournaments, leagues, matches or in-play betting and put your sports knowledge to the test. We offer betting. Betting a Favorite: The odds for favorites will have a minus (-) sign, and represent the money you need to risk to win $100. So if you're betting on the Packers at -140 against the Vikings, that means Green Bay is a slight favorite. You need to risk $140 to win $100 on the Packers.
The statement I’m about to make will most certainly shock any sports bettor who reads it. While most of us are under the impression that everyone betting sports wins long term, so long as they bet often enough, this isn’t actually true.
Wait you’re not surprised? Of course you’re not! Everyone knows the bookmaker has an advantage so more times than not sports bettors lose. However, what if there was a way that the rolls could be reversed; what if the sports bettor always had the advantage?
This is in fact possible.
Have you ever heard the term advantage player? This is a label gambling companies assign to players who only bet when the odds are in their favor.
Even though “on average” bookmakers have a 4.55% advantage on straight bets (2.38% @ -105), the key word is “average”; advantage players find bets where the bookmaker’s advantage is negative. Whether your goal is to be a sports betting pro, or just earn a little money on the side, the first step to winning is to stop making –EV bets.
If you understand what expected value, -EV, and +EV mean, go ahead and skip down to our advice on finding +EV bets. If you’re not familiar with this concept continue reading.
Expected Value (EV) Explained
Expected value is a term professional gamblers use on a regular basis. To explain what it means in simple terms I’ll use an example. Let’s say me and you decided to have a coin flipping contest. We flip coins and you give me $1 for each outcome of heads; I give you $1 for each outcome of tails. We could flip coins for all eternity and neither of us will ever have an advantage because on average half the time we lose $1 half the time we win $1. While there will be swings back and forth, as long as we flip the coin enough times eventually we’ll both break even. This particular bet has neutral expected value.
Now let’s say I’m tired of flipping coins, and want to quit, but while begging me to stay you offer me a better deal. This new deal pays me $1.10 for every heads, and I still pay you $1.00 for every tails. What happens now is half the time I win $1.10 and half the time I lose $1.00. If we flip 100 times I should average 50 wins of $1.10 ($55) and 50 losses of $1 ($50). Every flip of the coin I have a positive expectation (+EV) of 5 cents. As the one offering me this proposition you have the opposite, every flip of the coin is 5 cents –EV for you.
Every wager made in sports betting has either a positive expected value (+EV), negative expectation value (-EV) or in rare cases neutral expected value. Winning sports betting requires avoiding –EV and finding +EV bets.
Finding +EV Sports Bets
The reasons most sports bettors don’t spend time learning the tricks of advantage players is it’s slightly time consuming, most have no leads how to do it, are overwhelmed or when they do learn it’s not actually fun. If you’re looking for something fun we suggest paint balling, a trip to the amusement park, circus or what have you. If you’re looking to actually make money then you’ll need to know how to find +EV bets.
At TheSportsGeek.com we have several articles on this topic you’ll want to read:
Teaser Betting Strategy – This is perhaps the easiest method a sports bettor can use to find bets with a positive advantage. When you also read our article on the current betting market, you’ll realize just before game time the lines are efficient. Teasers are based off the current betting lines, so no longer do you need to go do any deep analysis to find out whether as straight bet is +EV. Here find spots where teasers increase the win rate by enough and you’ll have a +EV bet. This is all described in our article on teaser betting strategy.
Prop Betting Strategy – Prop bets are generally considered the easiest wagering opportunity for sports bettors to beat. In our article on prop betting strategy I give a full break down of the prop bet “which team will score first”. After reading that article you’ll have enough information to start finding +EV bets on this specific prop. In time, as you get experience you’ll be able to solve other prop bet on your own and then beat them using as similar method to the one I show in the example.
Must Read Sports Betting Books
If you’re new to advantage betting some books that will help you greatly with the basics are:
1) Sharp Sports Betting by Stanford Wong
2) Weighing the Odds in Sports Betting by King Yao
Once you’re much more experienced and ready to take things to the next level then I strongly Conquering Risk: Attacking Vegas and Wall Street by Elihu D. Feustel. This is a book for advanced sports bettors and not a good read for anyone not already winning. It is heavily math, statistic and handicapping intensive. If you eventually decided on a career as an advantage player at some point down the road you’ll want to work to understand what Elihu D. Feustel shares in this book.
No matter what methods you use to find +EV bets, the information contained in our article on finding maximum value is a must read. Next, if you’re thinking about purchasing picks, read our article on winning without a tout. In that article you’ll also find some information on getting free picks. Use that with the earlier mention getting max value article, and shopping the market and you’ll likely be turning an easy, yet slightly time consuming profit.
With this out of the way let me now cover the easiest way to get your bankroll started: “Bonus Whoring”.
A Free Lunch in Sports Betting
If you’ve heard the saying there is no such thing as a free lunch, well think again. Here are some bonuses that sports betting sites offer to players making their first deposit:
At the time of writing this Bookmaker is offering a massive holiday bonus of 25% up to $2,500 sports + 175% up to $1,000 poker + 100% up to $250 casino. If you don’t have an account, visit Bookmaker and register using Bonus Code THEGEEK on the sign up field. After logging in, head to the cashier where the available “deposit bonus codes” will be listed. Use this code and you’ll now have the added advantage of massive free play bonus.
Bovada offers 10% cash bonus on bettor’s first deposit. The best thing about this bonus is it is instant and it’s cash (as opposed to free play). Also no crazy strings such as rollover, hold period etc, simply roll your initial deposit and 10% bonus over a single time and it is free and clear your own money to keep.
Here you can get up to $1,000 in free bonus money. Getting the max bonus is a multi step process. First sign up, and be sure to leave the Promotion Code field empty. Next follow the steps on our BetOnline Bonus page to negotiate a massive bonus with their live support.
When you combine +EV bets with free bonus cash, winning at sports betting is a cinch. The only piece of the puzzle you have left is protecting and growing your bankroll. Our best advice here, never wager more than a few percent of what you have on hand on a single game.
Once you have this all down, while it takes other sports bettors a lot of luck to win, the opposite is true for you. A bookie beating an advantage player who uses responsible bet sizing, keeps his composure during downswings while making only +EV bets, is quite difficult. Follow this and the only ways you lose is horrible bad luck!
Once again don’t forget to take advantage of the bonus at www.Bovada.lv!
We wish you the best of luck and know soon enough you’ll be shacking your head confused the same at us, whenever you hear the statement “most sports bettors lose” and clearly you won’t be on of them.
Other Advanced Sports Betting Strategy Articles:
Football Betting Strategy - How to Win Football Bets EveryTime
You're tired of putting money on football matches, only to lose out when it comes to the crunch. You want answers, and you want them fast - you want a Football betting strategy that works!. Stick with us, and we'll show you how to win football bets.
Get to Know Football
I know, it's a pretty obvious point to make, but would you go into a computer shop and say to the person behind the counter, 'I don't know much about computers, but give me the best one you have'?
Nope, you'd find out what you could about computers from websites, magazines and word-of-mouth before going shopping, because the last thing anyone wants is to get fleeced. You've got to know your market, whether you're looking at buying a new PC or betting on football.
This means making sure you have all the knowledge at your disposal that could be useful. With these, you can understand how to win football bets every time. From where can you get this knowledge? Allow me to explain.
Statistics
It's a point we often make on Bookiesmash, but the best bets are not made on hunches or hope. They're made on a clear understanding of what football teams, and footballers, do best. This means looking at the statistics on offer from various websites.
Bookiesmash is a good place to start. We analyze the games, looking at past form, player fitness, and how teams are set up. We also provide you with regular content that puts all that together and explains to you how to win football bets better than Yahoo Answers ever could. Simply put we give you the best possible information out there in order for you to develop your own personal Football Betting Strategy that works for you.
Check out our Football Betting Strategy 101 section for updates on the latest changes in football betting strategy, and we'll make sure you get the best possible return for your football bets.
Go Deeper
It's notable that a lot of recent success stories in football have been teams that have taken a statistical approach to the game. Footballers are not machines, but you can track their every move out on the pitch now, and there are sites that can tell even the newest bettor important tips on how to win at football betting.
The best on the web, in our opinion, is whoscored.com - a goldmine of statistics on the best goalscorers, defenders, and so on. You can use the data on whoscored to show, for example, the teams in any major league which score or concede the most goals before or after half time; with this information, you could place a bet on the Half-Time/Full-Time result.
There is a world of information on whoscored, and it's very easy to get lost in it - so take your time, get to know the stats, and don't be afraid to ask questions, either of your old friend Google or that mate we all have who knows everything about the game. A bit of extra knowledge, and you will know how to always win football bets.
Get to Know Different Kinds of Bets
How about the different kinds of bet you can make on a football match? There are many, some of them with great value to the smart bettor, others proving a bit of a distraction from the top prizes. Be careful what you put your money on, and you won't go wrong.
Bets on exact scores are the ones that people seem to flock to - but they shouldn't. Why? Well, for starters, they're not going to win you the big money the high odds promise, unless you're very fortunate. Let's suppose you bet on Team X to beat Team Y 2-0. What happens if team Y scores in the final minute to make it 2-1? You've lost a lot of money, that's what.
Protect yourself from this nightmare scenario, by betting on odds that might be shorter, but are for more likely occurrences. These might be the overall result (win, lose or draw), or the previously-mentioned Half-Time/Full-Time result, a useful bet if you know a team that has a few slow-starters in its ranks.
Rather than betting on the first goalscorer, as the TV commercials always implore you to do, think if that is the most sensible thing to do. Sure, your chosen player might be good. In fact, he might be the best goalscorer in the land. But how likely is he to score before anyone else, and will it really make a difference to the team's result whether he scores first or second?
Better to bet on your player scoring anytime. The odds aren't as long or as attractive as with first goalscorer, but you're more likely to win the bet, and so to get a return. This is another example of, with a bit of astute application of knowledge, how to always win football bets.
Accumulators
The accumulator, or acca, is the bet that can go so right, or so wrong, because of its increased level of risk.
What you do is put together a series of bets, usually on the same thing, across multiple matches. You might bet on the winner of, say, five different matches, with the aim of getting a bigger return when those matches are all over. Here and in Football Betting 101, we'll show you how to win football accumulator bets.
The benefit and the problem with accas is that, although when you add the matches together, they make for very attractive odds, if you invest in a five-fold (five-match) acca on match result, and four teams win but one team loses, you've lost your acca.
To avoid this situation, study team form carefully, look at sides in all major leagues which are on winning runs or which are facing sides that they are likely to beat, and place your bets accordingly. Look out for bookmakers offering promotions such as acca insurance - this is a way of getting your money back, usually as a later free bet, if one part of your acca lets you down.
The Bookie
Bet For Free And Win Money
In the middle of all this stands the bookmaker or bookie. This is the company that sets the odds that you will bet on. Choose your bookie wisely. On Bookiesmash we've got the best bookies reviewed and rated - check out all the different sites available to you, check out the statistics behind the football, and you will understand how to win football bets every time.
You can use these free money offers to place your first bets:
OfferGet up to €100 in FREE bets! 18+. T&Cs apply
OfferStart With a Free Bet up to £30!
Offer100% First Deposit Bonus Match - Up to £50
Bet And Win Real Money App
picture courtesy of sportskeeda.com